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Top 10 most vulnerable Texas Democrat-held districts for 2020

As a follow-up to our exploration of vulnerable Texas Republican candidates, we analyzed the 10 most vulnerable Democratic seats in the Lone Star State for the 2020 elections. As part of the so-called blue wave of 2018, many of these representatives will be defending their seats following their first term in office.

Gina Calanni (D-Katy)District: HD-132. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Calanni won her district by 113 votes, a 0.1% margin in 2018. Ownership issues: Public education, human trafficking, solutions for flood control.Rep. Michelle Beckly (D-Carrollton)District: HD-65. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Beckley won District 65 by 1,358 votes, a 2.3% margin. Ownership issues: Healthcare, public education, environmental issues, and the legalization of cannabis.Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) District: HD-135. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Rosenthal won his district by a 3.1% margin with 1,772 votes in the 2018 election. Ownership issues: Healthcare, public education, criminal justice reform, infrastructure, and clean energy. Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood)District: HD-45. Time in office: first elected 2018. District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Zwiener won her district with a 3.1% margin by 2,676 votes. Ownership issues: Ensuring state funding for local school districts, investing in renewable energy, fair election laws, and expanding access to healthcare.Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock)District: HD-52. Time in office: first elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Talarico won District 52 by 2,458 votes, a 3.4% margin in 2018. Ownership issues: Strengthening public schools, lowering property taxes, affordable healthcare, reforming criminal justice. Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin)District: HD-47. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Goodwin won the district with a 4.7% margin with 4,910 votes. Ownership issues: Maintaining public education reform, redistricting, expanding Medicaid and women’s healthcare programs, and solutions for efficient and safe transportation. Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Richardson)District: HD-102. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Ramos won her district by 3,181 votes, a 4.7% margin. Ownership issues: Education reform, affordable healthcare, and providing property tax relief for constituents. Rep. John Bucy III (D-Austin)District: HD-136. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Bucy III won District 136 with 53.3% of the vote in the 2018 election. Ownership issues: Public education, healthcare programs, reducing property taxes, and increasing local control. Rep. John Turner (D-Dallas)District: HD-114. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: Rep. Turner won his district by 7,512 votes, 55.6%, in 2018. Ownership issues: Funding Texas public schools, reducing property taxes for constituents, improving mental health and foster care systems, and investing in public transportation and infrastructure.Rep. Rhetta Bowers (D-Garland)District: HD-113. Time in office: Elected 2018. District voting history: In the 2018 election, Rep. Bowers won her district by 3,670 votes, a 7% margin. Ownership issues: Education, jobs and wages, improving healthcare for all, and transportation.

Politician: Rep. Gina Calanni (D-Katy)

District: HD-132

Time in office: Elected 2018 

District voting history: Rep. Calanni won her district by 113 votes, a 0.1% margin in 2018. 

Ownership issues: Public education, human trafficking, solutions for flood control

Summary: 

Rep. Calanni saw success during the legislative session on two significant issues: human trafficking and sexual assault measures. Calanni filed a total of 35 bills, 11 of which passed, a high number of introductions and a strong percentage of passage for most incumbents, much less a freshman representative.

Calanni found success by authoring bipartisan legislation focused on local issues, like water control and improvement districts, creating a MUD (municipal utility district) district, and the powers and duties of MUD districts.

Calanni generally voted with her moderate district and not along party lines; she voted for the Republican-authored bill to increase penalties for pipeline protesting, a high profile topic for a House floor debate. 

Website: https://www.ginacalanni.com/

Challengers: Angelica Garcia

 

Politician: Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton)

District: HD-65

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Beckley won District 65 by 1,358 votes, a 2.3% margin. 

Ownership issues: Healthcare, public education, environmental issues, and the legalization of cannabis

Summary: 

Beckley was most recently in the news as an alleged Republican target in the ‘Bonnghazi’ scandal. Rumors swirled Speaker Dennis Bonnen (R) insulted her during a meeting with hardline conservative activist and leader of Empower Texans, Michael Quinn Sullivan. According to Beckley, her ‘Aggie Caucus’ Republican colleagues confirmed “multiple people said it was really, really bad what [Bonnen] said about me.”

During session, Beckley focused on healthcare, and co-authored HB 1645 to increase a health benefit plan coverage of pre-existing conditions. Though the bill died in committee, a few of Beckley’s co-authored bills made it to the governor’s desk — Gov. Abbott vetoed HB 455, which aimed to change recess policies in public schools to encourage constructive outdoor playtime. 

The governor did approve another bill Beckley co-authored HB 3091, which made disclosing the layout or location of a family violence shelter center or a human trafficking shelter a class A misdemeanor. In Texas, class A misdemeanors can be punished with up to a year in county jail and a fine not to exceed $4,000. 

Website: https://www.michellebeckley.com/

Challengers: Paige Jeanie Dixon (Primary), Nancy Cline

 

Politician: Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) 

District: HD-135

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: Rep. Rosenthal won his district by a 3.1% margin with 1,772 votes in the 2018 election

Ownership issues: Healthcare, public education, criminal justice reform, infrastructure, and clean energy. 

Summary: 

Rosenthal was named Freshman of the Year by the Legislative Study Group, a non-partisan House caucus led by veteran member Rep. Garnet Coleman, who said Rosenthal was “thoughtful, respected and actively supports policies that benefit Texas families and especially his constituents.”

As a freshman legislator, Rosenthal filed a significant number of bills his first session, authoring 39 and passing seven, not including joint-authored documents. 

Rosenthal served on the County Affairs and Energy Resources committees, and made himself known by asking many questions on the House floor.  He was also recently in the news as a top target of Speaker Dennis Bonnen in what has become known as the “Bonnghazi” controversy, which has triggered an investigation by the Texas Rangers.  Rosenthal has downplayed the controversy and accepted Bonnen’s apology.

Website: https://rosenthal4usall.com/

Challengers: Justin Ray, Mark McCaig

 

Politician: Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood)

District: HD-45

Time in office: first elected 2018

District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Zwiener won her district with a 3.1% margin by 2,676 votes

Ownership issues: Ensuring state funding for local school districts, investing in renewable energy, fair election laws, and expanding access to healthcare

Summary:

With a career and education “heavily rooted in environmental conservation and natural resource management,” many of Zweiner’s authored bills proposed to aid natural and ecological resources. Though Zweiner authored 39 bills, most were left pending in committee.

During session, Zweiner served on the Agriculture and Livestock committee and the Environmental Regulation committee. 

According to Texas Monthly, House members sang Rep. Zwiener’s praises as a potential future leader of the House Democrats; now the pressure is on to see whether she can hold on to the seat in the 2020 election. 

Website: https://www.erinforyall.com/

Challengers: Carrie Isaac, Kent “Bud” Wymore, Holly Newton, Chelsea Kendall-Meckel

 

Politician: Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock)

District: HD-52

Time in office: first elected 2018

District voting history: Rep. Talarico won District 52 by 2,458 votes, a 3.4% margin in 2018

Ownership issues: Strengthening public schools, lowering property taxes, affordable healthcare, reforming criminal justice

Summary: 

After winning his district in a special election to replace former state Rep. Larry Gonzales (R), Talarico became the youngest state representative currently in the Texas Legislature. His age did not define his first term, however; Talarico is best known for walking the entire length of his district—a total of 25 miles—to hold town hall meetings and talk with constituents.

The former middle school teacher introduced a bipartisan 24-bill package he called “the Whole Student Agenda,” to keep students “safe, healthy and ready” by focusing on issues outside traditional academics, like expanding mental health resources, suicide prevention, and a “practical” curriculum which includes financial literacy, sex education and civics. Three of those bills passed.

With no announced challengers, Talarico is likely watching the Dec. 9 filing deadline to find out if he’ll be running uncontested.

Website: https://www.jamestalarico.com/

Challengers: None announced

Update as of August 30, 10:30AM: Lucio Valdez

 

Politician: Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin)

District: HD-47

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: Rep. Goodwin won the district with a 4.7% margin with 4,910 votes

Ownership issues: Maintaining public education reform, redistricting, expanding Medicaid and women’s healthcare programs, and solutions for efficient and safe transportation

Summary: 

Most of Vikki Goodwin’s bills died in committee. However, the bills which did pass – like two of her Municipal Utility District bills – will directly affect her constituents by giving them water, sewage, drainage and other utility-related services. 

Goodwin’s also passed legislation to provide financial literacy for high schoolers, but it died in the Senate.

With five Republicans lined up for a potential primary, Goodwin should be prepared for a fight in November 2020.

Website: https://vikkigoodwin.com/

Challengers: Jenny Roan Forgey, Aaron Reitz, Donald Zimmerman, Jennifer Fleck, Justin Berry

 

Politician: Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Richardson)

District: HD-102

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: In 2018, Rep. Ramos won her district by 3,181 votes, a 4.7% margin

Ownership issues: Education reform, affordable healthcare, and providing property tax relief for constituents

Summary: 

Though Rep. Ramos passed few of her bills this legislative session, it wasn’t for lack of trying. She authored or co-authored 75 bills which addressed a wide arrary to topics, including education, suicide prevention and assisting human trafficking victims.

After the session, Ramos called for ethics and accountability in Texas politics and, along with the Texas Democratic Party, filed a lawsuit to uncover more information about a backroom deal involving the Texas Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen (R-Angleton), Rep. Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) and conservative attack dog Michael Quinn Sullivan. 

The suit names Sullivan and an “unknown named political committee,” which includes Bonnen and Burrows.   

So far, next year’s election in HD-102 is looking a lot like last year’s. The only person who’s announced a campaign for 2020 is Linda Koop, the former representative Ramos defeated in 2018.  

Website: https://ramos4texas.com/

Challengers: Linda Koop

 

Politician: Rep. John Bucy III (D-Austin)

District: HD-136

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: Rep. Bucy III won District 136 with 53.3% of the vote in the 2018 election 

Ownership issues: Public education, healthcare programs, reducing property taxes, and increasing local control

Summary: 

After running for the state House and failing to capture his district in 2014, John Bucy ran again in 2018, and won due to a significant 10-point shift in the district.

Bucy did not waste time in his first legislative session — he introduced 31 bills and passed seven, earning the title of Freshman Lawmaker of the Year from The Texas House Democratic Caucus.

At a recent town hall in Leander, Bucy said if he’s reelected in 2020, he wants to “tackle redistricting, Medicaid expansion, more election legislation and making fine arts education a core along with other items in the next legislative session.”

Website: https://www.bucyfortexas.com/

Challengers: Michael Guevera, Derrick Johns (Libertarian)

 

Politician: Rep. John Turner (D-Dallas)

District: HD-114

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: Rep. Turner won his district by 7,512 votes, 55.6%, in 2018

Ownership issues: 

Funding Texas public schools, reducing property taxes for constituents, improving mental health and foster care systems, and investing in public transportation and infrastructure

Summary: 

Known as a “moderate Democrat,” in his first legislative session Rep. Turner saw success working with lawmakers across the aisle. He successfully passed a first responder bill making it easier for first responders to receive worker’s compensation for post-traumatic stress disorder, and another bill providing financial assistance to the survivors of certain law enforcement officers, firefighters and other public employees killed in the line of duty.

Turner has drawn an opponent in Luisa Del Rosal, who was one of the top fundraisers in the first six months of 2019, raising $161,000.  Turner will have to work hard to hold a seat he won by double digits in 2018.

Website: https://johnturnerfortexas.org/

Challengers: Luisa Del Rosal

 

Politician: Rep. Rhetta Bowers (D-Garland)

District: HD-113

Time in office: Elected 2018

District voting history: In the 2018 election, Rep. Bowers won her district by 3,670 votes, a 7% margin

Ownership issues: Education, jobs and wages, improving healthcare for all, and transportation 

Summary: 

Rep. Bowers who ran for the seat in 2016 and narrowly lost, made history in 2018 as the first black woman elected to represent District 113, in a district won by both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

Bowes was named Freshman of the Year from the Texas Legislative Black Caucus. During the session, Bowers authored several bills which didn’t make it out of committee, most notably pieces of legislation focused on criminal justice reform, homelessness and children’s rights. 

However, she was successful in passing a law establishing March 1 as “Texas Girl’s in STEM Day.” The day recognizes, celebrates and encourages “the participation of girls in this state in fields related to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.”

Bowers has yet to draw an official challenger. 

Website: http://rhettabowers.com/

Challengers: No announced challengers

Staff
Staff
Written by RA News staff.

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