New internal GOP polls show incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn facing diminished support as he tries to hang onto his seat in the 2026 Republican primary under challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Among likely Republican primary voters, internal Republican polls obtained by the Houston Chronicle showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 17 percentage points.
Asked who they would support if the primary were held today, half of the 605 voters surveyed in mid-April said that they would vote for Paxton, compared to 33% for the incumbent.
Even with a potent endorsement from President Donald Trump, Cornyn still lagged behind Paxton, getting 38% support compared to 44% for the attorney general. And Trump’s endorsement could lose its sway between now and next spring, when the state is expected to schedule the Republican primary, if his approval rating slips further.
Those numbers have many party leaders worried that Cornyn will dump tens of millions of dollars into a bloody and unwinnable campaign that would leave the eventual nominee battered.
Still, Cornyn has been confident that he will claim victory in the primary, reiterating his smooth wins in his previous four U.S. Senate primaries. In a Wednesday statement quoted by the Chronicle, he said he is “110% committed to running a vigorous reelection campaign.”
If that polling holds true, if Paxton becomes the party’s nominee, some Democratic strategists believe it will leave the party in a stronger position to win a U.S. Senate election in the Lone Star State for the first time since 1988. Paxton is a deeply divisive figure even among Republicans, having been impeached and acquitted by the Texas Legislature last session and dogged by scandal and controversy for more than a decade.
Beto O’Rourke, a former Democratic U.S. House member who in 2018 lost a campaign to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, has said that he’s open to running again next year, and told the Dallas Morning News that Paxton’s nomination would be a “gift” to Democrats.
The polling reported on by the Chronicle reflects that unpopularity, finding that Paxton is significantly less popular among Texas Republicans than other party leaders, such as Gov. Greg Abbott, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and President Donald Trump. About 80% of respondents viewed those politicians favorably, but Paxton’s favorability was only about 60%.
