Trump Maintains 9-Point Lead Over Biden In Texas, UH Survey Finds

Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden among Texas voters by nine points, with Trump at 49% and Biden at 40%, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs concluded that preferences in the presidential race haven’t changed since January.

“Even after Trump’s conviction, and all of the concerns over Biden’s age, his poor debate performance and Kennedy’s high-profile entrance into the race, voters haven’t changed their minds about the candidates,” said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. “Voters know these candidates, and little seems likely to sway their opinions.”

Despite 51% of voters believing Trump is guilty, and 35% believing he is not, voter opinions remain largely unchanged.

Mark P. Jones of Rice University noted that Trump leads among most demographics in Texas, with strong support from men, white voters, and older voters. Biden leads significantly among Black voters (73% to 16%) and has a slight edge among Millennials (46% to 40%).

The survey shows that partisan loyalty is strong, with 92% of Trump voters and 94% of Biden voters certain they won’t change their minds before the election. Among Independents, Trump leads with 42%, Biden has 18%, Kennedy 14%, and 16% are undecided.

One of the key findings of the poll is that, in the Senate race, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is cutting the distance between him and Sen. Ted Cruz. This poll shows a three-point difference (47% to 44%) between Cruz and Allred, a tightening form Cruz’s nine-point lead over Allred in a poll last winter.

“Earlier in the year, especially before Allred secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary, he was more of an unknown quantity,” said Michael O. Adams of the TSU. “As a congressman from Dallas, he wasn’t well-known in the rest of the state, but as a result of winning the primary and months of campaigning and advertising, his name ID has increased, and support has nudged up by five points.”