Trump’s Low Approval Opens Path for Democrats Ahead of 2026

A year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold a notable early lead in the fight for Congress, according to a new NBC News poll conducted Oct. 24-28. The survey shows an 8-point Democratic advantage, 50%-42%, the largest gap for either party on the congressional ballot since 2018.

The poll reflects growing voter frustration with President Donald Trump. Around two-thirds of registered voters say the administration has fallen short on the economy and cost of living, while a majority feel Trump has not delivered on changing Washington’s “business as usual.” Overall, the president’s approval rating sits at 43%, with 55% disapproving of his job performance.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, told NBC News, “This is an electorate that remains deeply unhappy with the status quo.” McInturff cautioned, however, that government shutdowns can create “unstable” political moments that may fade over time.

Voters remain focused on key issues including protecting democracy and constitutional rights. The poll finds that 52% believe Trump has done more than previous presidents to undermine the Constitution, while 31% say he has done more to protect it. Economic concerns also weigh heavily, with 61% reporting that their family income is falling behind the cost of living.

While Democrats lead on health care, constitutional rights, and democracy, Republicans maintain advantages on border security, crime, and immigration. On the economy, the parties are nearly tied: 38% say Republicans would handle it better, 37% say Democrats.

Voter engagement is high, particularly among Democrats: 74% of Democratic respondents rate their interest in next year’s election at 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale. One year out, 70% of voters say they want their vote to send a message about Trump, with 40% opposing him and 30% supporting him.

Despite their early lead in congressional polling, Democrats’ overall favorability remains low, with just 28% of registered voters viewing the party positively. Independents express particularly dim views of both parties.

The poll also tested opinions on foreign policy and law enforcement. Voters are split on Trump’s handling of the Gaza conflict, and 54% say federal deployments to cities to address crime and immigration are not justified. Views of ICE remain largely negative, particularly among Black and Hispanic voters.

The NBC News poll underscores that Trump remains a central figure shaping voter sentiment, creating both challenges and opportunities for Democrats as they prepare for the 2026 midterms.