Mass Killings Drop to Lowest in Nearly Two Decades: What It Really Means

A shooting at a children’s birthday party in Stockton, California, left four dead last weekend, marking the 17th mass killing in the United States this year, the lowest number recorded since 2006. The data comes from a database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.

The database defines mass killings as incidents in which four or more people are killed within 24 hours, excluding the perpetrator. Numbers were down about 24% in 2025 compared to 2024, which itself was 20% lower than 2023.

Researchers warn, however, that the decline does not necessarily signal a long-term shift.

James Alan Fox, the Northeastern University criminologist who oversees the database, called it a “regression to the mean,” noting it may reflect a return to typical levels after spikes in 2018 and 2019. “Will 2026 see a decline? I wouldn’t bet on it. What goes down must also go back up,” he said to The Associated Press.

“A small change could look like a wave or a collapse,” said James Densley, a professor at Metropolitan State University in Minnesota. He also noted that declining homicide rates since the COVID-19 pandemic, along with improved emergency response, may have helped limit fatalities in recent incidents.

None of this year’s mass killings occurred in schools, with just one school-based incident recorded in 2024. Experts partly attribute this trend to growing state-mandated school threat assessments. Roughly 82% of this year’s mass killings involved a firearm.

Meanwhile, Christopher Carita, a former detective and senior training specialist with 97Percent, credited the 2022 Safer Communities Act, which provided flexible funding for gun violence prevention programs. 

“It’s always been framed as either a ‘gun problem’ or a ‘people problem,’ and that’s been very contentious. I feel like for the first time, we’re looking at gun violence as a ‘both, and’ problem nationally,” he told The Associated Press.

A Broader Perspective

While the decline in mass killings is notable, researchers emphasize the importance of looking at the larger picture.

Emma Fridel, assistant professor at Florida State University, warned that focusing only on mass killings risks “missing the forest for the trees.” She emphasized that gun-related deaths, including suicides and homicides, remain high. “The number one cause of death for children is guns,” she said, underscoring that mass killings are only one part of a much larger issue.

For more information regarding gun violence in Texas, visit RA’s site Gun Violence Watch and follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and X.