Economic Momentum Slows As Trump Hits 100-Day Mark Amid Trade Uncertainty

In President Trump’s first 100 days back in office, early signs of economic strain are emerging. The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, a sharp drop from 2.4% growth in late 2024. Businesses rushed to stock up ahead of tariff hikes, inflating inventories, while a decline in government spending further dampened growth, according to newly released data from the Commerce Department.

Consumer sentiment and spending are weakening. Personal consumption grew by just 1.8%, a sharp decline from earlier quarters. A key consumer confidence index has dropped for five straight months, with tariffs now a bigger concern than inflation. Although unemployment remains relatively stable at 4.2%, economists warn that worsening expectations about future jobs could indicate deeper trouble ahead. Since Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 has fallen 7.3% and the Nasdaq 11%, marking the worst market start to a presidency since the 1970s.

“Recession often begins when confidence cracks,” said Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi “Consumers lose faith that they’re going to be able to hold onto their job, and they cut back on spending and we go into recession,” as reported by NPR.

Morningstar, a respected investment research firm known for its financial analysis, outlines the leading signs of a potential recession as follows:

1. Inflation: Rising inflation can prompt the Fed to hike interest rates, risking a slowdown.
   
2. Stock Market Declines: A 20%+ drop from the peak can signal recession concerns.
   
3. Credit Spreads: Narrowing spreads reflect confidence; widening can signal trouble.
   
4. Inverted Yield Curve: Occurs when short-term yields exceed long-term, often precedes recessions.
   
5. Decrease in Real GDP: A contracting economy is a core recession signal.
   
6. High Unemployment: Rising jobless claims and wage stagnation can indicate downturns.
   
7. Reduced Business Spending: Investment cutbacks often happen early in recessions.
   
8. Price of Gold: Demand rises as investors seek safe havens.
   
9. Housing Starts and Prices: Slowing markets and declining prices often accompany recessions.

Based on Morningstar’s recession indicators, three out of nine key warning signs are present: a decrease in real GDP, reduced business spending, and stock market declines. While this doesn’t yet indicate a full recession, it underscores growing economic pressures. Trump’s tariff policies have added volatility, with some import-reliant businesses facing falling sales and rising costs, even likening it to the 2008 crisis. In times like these, staying informed without panic is essential, thoughtful policy and strategic actions can still guide the economy toward stability.