Gasoline Prices Continue To Fall, Could We Reach Lower Prices Since 2021?

Gasoline has dropped 47 since last year, and experts forecast that in the coming months, gasoline could cost $3 dollars per gallon, the lowest since 2021.

According to NPR, the national average for a gallon of regular gas has dropped over 20 cents since May, now sitting at $3.38. Experts have forecast that gasoline prices would likely continue to fall in the next few months.

Gasoline prices can vary from one state to another, depending on different factors. For example, California’s average is at $4.59 per gallon due to higher state taxes, while Texas enjoys lower prices at $2.93.

Several factors are influencing this price decrease. Unlike last year, when extreme weather events like Hurricane Idalia and intense heat waves disrupted refinery operations and increased prices, this summer has been less turbulent for oil production. 

“The late-season wild card is always hurricanes,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told NPR. “If a hurricane makes landfall in a refining area, it can really disrupt things.”

While hurricanes have not done considerable damage to oil production this year, we are still in storm season, and Texas could still be affected.

Other global factors also play a role. Iran’s oil production remains unaffected by its geopolitical actions, while China’s lower demand due to its slowing economy and the possibility of OPEC+ cutting production constraints in October could stabilize the market. Moreover, the U.S. is producing record amounts of oil, coinciding with a reduction in domestic demand. Factors like remote work, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), and an aging population that drives less have all contributed to reduced gasoline consumption.

Given these conditions, experts like those at GasBuddy and the Oil Price Information Service suggest that gas prices might fall below $3 per gallon before Thanksgiving and could stay low into next year.