Redistricting Map Puts California Republicans on Edge

Due to California’s possible renewed congressional map, the GOP is on alert and some Republicans are calling it an outright “guillotine” for their compromised influence in the state.

The annual Republican Party convention in Orange County turned into a full-on strategy session, as party leaders, delegates, and activists gathered to discuss defensive strategies against redistricting plans.

According to reporting from POLITICO, Governor Gavin Newsom and California Democrats are backing a controversial Nov. 4 ballot measure to gerrymander California’s congressional districts. Republicans say the outcome could be politically devastating. 

“It’s a guillotine,” said Dale Quasny, a GOP delegate from suburban Los Angeles County. “We won’t be able to pick up the pieces and move forward. I mean, we were making a little headway, but this would be a catastrophe.”

While Republicans have long been powerless in Sacramento, they’ve maintained a critical role by winning battleground House races, such as Central Valley and Orange County. But under the proposed map, they’re facing the potential loss of up to five congressional seats, a state where the GOP hasn’t won a statewide race since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s second term in 2006. 

And the fight, Republicans say, was triggered by none other than President Donald Trump. His push for Republican gerrymandering in Texas launched a national redistricting arms race.  

“This is happening in California, but it’s bigger than California,” said Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC to POLITICO. “It’s about Democrats’ effort to actually take a stand and win back the House.”

California Democrats, initially hesitant, are now ready to fight fire with fire, with Gov. Gavin Newsom taking the lead. “This moment calls for urgency and action. That’s why we’re giving voters a way to fight back and nullify congressional gains in Texas or any state that tries to rig its maps,” shared Gov. Newsom via Facebook post.

“When you fight a fire with fire, you could get really burned,” commented James Gallagher, the Republican leader in the state Assembly to POLITICO. Gallagher warns that California’s move to redraw the maps would set a dangerous precedent.

Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, whose suburban Sacramento seat is at risk, also added to POLITICO, “We shouldn’t be having mid-decade redistricting in any state.”

Republican activists are now appealing to a “good government” message to defeat the ballot measure, pointing to widespread public support for non-partisan line-drawing, which is popular in California. Internal polling from Democrats in the state Legislature suggests the initiative could be vulnerable, especially if turnout is low among Democratic-leaning independents.

Back in June, Rep. Zoe Lofgren called the idea of retaliatory redistricting “absurd” and dismissed it as bluff rather than a realistic plan.

“It seemed to me worth a bluff,” she shared with POLITICO. “If the Texans and Trump thought they’d go through all of this and they’d end up not gaining anything, maybe they would stop.”

Gov. Newsom, fueled by the momentum of the Texas plan and what some insiders described as “self-generating” political pressure, began actively preparing for a map redistribution.  “It got very real, very fast,” Newsom later recounted.

With a massive ballot battle looming in November and no clear path to legislative influence, California Republicans find themselves scrambling to stop a wave they believe could wipe out their last base in national politics.