It May Be Paxton vs. Cornyn for Senate in 2026

One of the biggest Republican primary fights in Texas history may already be gearing up. Attorney General Ken Paxton is hinting that he may challenge senior U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the upcoming 2026 election.

Paxton sailed to a third term as the state’s top cop in 2022 despite an impeachment (but acquittal in the Texas Senate), federal investigations for misuse of office, and a criminal indictment that was only dismissed in March 2024. Since then, he’s hinted that he wants to run for U.S. Senate.

“The second thing we need to do, and I might play a role in this, is replace John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate,” Paxton said at a Republican Party meeting on Monday. His announcement was met with applause from those in attendance.

His opponent is not a lightweight. Cornyn was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002 and has never lost a race. In that time, he has often been in the top five most powerful Republicans on Capitol Hill, serving as Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Majority Whip. Cornyn was a contender for Majority Leader in the current session but lost to South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

Cornyn is a very conservative politician. GovTrack.us ranked him the 27^th most conservative senator in 2022. However, his penchant for bipartisanship is where Paxton sees a weakness. In 2022 he championed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major national gun control legislation in a generation. The bill was extremely moderate, mostly expanding laws that prevent domestic abusers from owning guns.

It made Cornyn something of a pariah in the far-right wing of his party, even getting booed at the Texas Republican Party Convention. Cornyn has also been known to break with President Donald Trump on issues like raising the limits on buying guns and has pushed back on the lie that the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen.

By contrast, Paxton is a full-on MAGA Republican. Paxton was one of the first attorneys general to sue to prove the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen, though he never produced any evidence supporting that. The Texas State Bar sued Paxton for attempting to overthrow the election, though the case was eventually dismissed. 

Since then, Paxton has had a very cordial relationship with Trump, attending the president’s court hearings when Trump was ultimately convicted of 34 felonies. Trump, in turn, supported Paxton during Paxton’s impeachment via social media posts.

With Trump possibly in his corner, Paxton could move to challenge Cornyn, who is a relatively moderate figure that tends to go his own way as opposed to toeing the party line when it comes to the president.

Matt Mackowiak, a veteran Republican strategist and communications consultant based in Texas and Washington, D.C., weighed in on the possible contest on Fox News Digital. While saying a Paxton win was definitely possible, it would still be hard even with Trump’s backing.

You’d have national activists and money involved on both sides,” he said. “It could end up being one of the biggest primaries of the cycle and probably the most significant statewide primary in Texas since Dewhurst-Cruz.”