Texas Republicans Face Risks in Mid-Decade Redistricting Push

As Texas Republicans prepare to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, experts warn that the effort, driven by pressure from Donald Trump’s allies, could backfire politically and legally. Governor Greg Abbott recently added redistricting to the Legislature’s special session agenda, aiming to create up to five new GOP seats to strengthen the party’s slim majority in the U.S. House.

But past experience offers a cautionary tale. After a similar move in 2011, Republicans lost ground by 2018 due to rapid demographic changes, especially among communities of color. “The lesson from 2010 is that you can stretch yourself too thin,” said Michael Li of the Brennan Center for Justice. “And when the politics change, you get bitten in the you-know-where.” Lawmakers must now rely on outdated 2020 census data, increasing the uncertainty of their calculations.

Some Republicans remain skeptical. “I think it’s a bad idea,” said Rep. Drew Darby, former chair of the House Redistricting Committee. Others fear history could repeat itself if districts are drawn too aggressively. “You can’t cut the districts so thin that it gets you through 2026 but puts those seats in jeopardy for the future,” warned John Colyandro, former senior adviser to Abbott, though he added, “Texas can certainly have a bit of a firewall against losses elsewhere.”

Legal challenges are already unfolding. The 2021 maps are still under federal court review for alleged discrimination against Black and Latino voters. Redrawing districts without new census data could expose the state to further lawsuits. “It’s very hard to maximize seats without undermining the political power of communities of color,” Li noted. “That is especially hard now that Texas is that much more diverse.”

While Trump’s team sees redistricting as a way to secure GOP control, some Republicans question its viability. “I don’t know how you create five districts out of that,” said one anonymous GOP lawmaker. Democrats have denounced the effort as a power grab and signaled potential retaliation in states like California. With legal risks, political backlash, and a rapidly shifting electorate, Texas Republicans are navigating a high-stakes and deeply contentious fight.