Will Ted Cruz Lose His Senate Seat?

Ted Cruz is in real trouble, as a new poll shows the incumbent Senator tied with not one, but two Democratic challengers. Is it finally over for Cruz?

The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, shows Cruz in a statistical tie with both U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). In a hypothetical matchup with Allred, 42% of voters would support Cruz, while 40% would vote for Allred. In the other matchup, 41% of voters would vote for Cruz, while 40% would support Gutierrez. Since the poll has a margin of error of 2.6%, the candidates are in a statistical tie.

Still, the candidates must face each other in the party’s March 5 primary before they can challenge Ted Cruz. The same poll shows that Allred is the most popular candidate among Democratic voters, with 29 percent support. Gutierrez is second with 7 percent and Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez is third with 6 percent. 

Those numbers could easily change, however, as 37 percent of voters said they were undecided.

“Significant portions of several key constituent groups are undecided in the Democratic Senate Primary, including Hispanic Democratic voters, Gen Z and Millennial voters, and voters without a college degree,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

Allred is a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who was first elected to Congress in 2018. Gutierrez, on the other hand, has served in the Texas Legislature since 2008 and has fought for gun safety legislation following the 2022 shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde (which is in Gutierrez’s district).

If no candidate wins a majority in the Democratic primary, the top two vote-getters will face off in a May 28 runoff.

At this point, however, Allred appears to be Cruz’s strongest opponent, with a significant advantage among Hispanics, young voters and women. Latinos are a key group in Texas, as they are the largest ethnic group in the state. Cruz, on the other hand, has a better performance with non-Hispanic white voters.

Right now, Cruz has to be really worried because whoever wins the Democratic primary could defeat him.

The Emerson College poll was conducted from January 13 to 15 with a sample of 1,315 registered voters and a credibility interval of +/- 2.6.