Ted Cruz’s Senate Race Tightens: GOP Poll Shows Narrow 1-Point Lead Over Allred

A leaked internal GOP poll showed Senator Ted Cruz decreasing his lead over his challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, raising the party’s alarms.

In a memo obtained by Politico, the Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC tasked to flip the Senate, warned that Allred is closing the gap between him and Cruz. The October SLF poll showed that Cruz was just 1 point ahead of Allred, decreasing form his 2 point lead in the previous September poll.

The memo also warned that Cruz is underperforming Donald Trump by 2 points and that Allred is overperforming Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points.

“We still have a lot of work to do to maximize our gains in this critical Senate election,” SLF president Steven Law wrote in the memo. “We need to add media markets and expand into the final week in all our target states. We also have to guard our flanks.”

This is certainly bad news for the Senator, who has long warned that this race could be tighter than expected. On Monday he warned on X that he is “being massively outspent in Texas.”

Democrats have targeted Cruz as one of the few vulnerable Republicans this electoral cycle and have poured considerable dollars into the Texas senate race. However, most polls are still showing Cruz with an advantage over Allred.

“There’s a saying that Texas is where Democratic money goes to die,” Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek. “While there’s a chance that Cruz could lose his seat, the Lone Star state almost always turns out to be redder than many polls—and experts—suggest.”

According to polling analysis site FiveThirthyEight, on average, Cruz had an average of 6 points over Allred, now his average advantage has decreased to roughly 4 points. In addition, earlier this month, The Cook Political Report shifted Texas’ senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Furthermore, the leaked poll comes just a day before the debate between Cruz and Allred. Appearing desperate or weak in the debate could cost him the race.
The debate will take place tomorrow, Tuesday, Oct. 15 at the WFAA studio in Dallas at 7 p.m. You can see where to watch the debate here.