Divorce Filing Adds Fuel to Texas Senate Primary, But Paxton’s Base Remains Steady

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s political future faced a new complication this week with the announcement that his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, has filed for divorce after 28 years of marriage, citing “biblical grounds.” While the revelation stirred speculation about its potential impact on the GOP Senate primary, early signs suggest the fallout may be limited, at least for now.

According to The Dallas Morning News, despite the deeply personal nature of the development, many within Paxton’s base have dismissed it as either irrelevant or even strategically motivated. Some allies suggest the timing could be aimed at weakening his momentum in the primary against longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

Paxton, who currently holds a polling lead of around 15 points, has weathered numerous controversies throughout his political career, including a high-profile impeachment, ongoing legal battles, and public acknowledgment of an extramarital affair. His core supporters have consistently signaled a willingness to overlook these issues.

Still, for Cornyn, the divorce could offer an opportunity to underscore his central message: character counts. Cornyn, who has raised more than Paxton to date, has framed his campaign around moral leadership, that he is willing to stake his political future on the idea that personal integrity still matters to voters.

“I think [the divorce] is marginally helpful to Senator Cornyn,” Southern Methodist University political scientist Matthew Wilson, told DMN. “It [helps] reinforce his main line of attack against Paxton, which is character-based.”

The divorce reinforces Cornyn’s core critique, not necessarily damaging Paxton in the primary, but highlighting vulnerabilities that could prove more costly in the general election. If Paxton secures the nomination, analysts argue Democrats may have a rare opening in a race that would otherwise be a Republican stronghold.

Democratic contenders are already jockeying for position. While Rep. Colin Allred has been seen as the frontrunner, a recent poll indicates Rep. Jasmine Crockett has surged ahead among Democratic primary voters, a shake-up that could shift the dynamics of the race. Recent polling indicates that Crockett holds a 35% to 20% lead over Colin Allred among Democratic primary voters, a surprising development given that Crockett has not officially entered the race.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, a close ally of Paxton in previous elections, has remained noticeably silent. That hesitation has fueled speculation that Trump may be weighing other options, such as U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, as a potential Senate pick.

As Paxton’s campaign presses forward, that tension remains unresolved, and increasingly unavoidable.