Are Paxton and Cornyn In a Head-to-head Matchup?

The 2026 primary for U.S. Senate in Texas is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races in the country. On the Republican side, recent polls and endorsements highlight a competitive battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with signs of a third potential candidate.

A poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, reported by The Texas Tribune on September 12, shows Cornyn leading Paxton 32% to 26%, with 29% of voters still undecided. This is the first time Cornyn has held a multiple-point lead over Paxton after trailing in earlier surveys. Both candidates are seeking the endorsement of President Donald Trump, which could play a decisive role in the race.

Meanwhile, Cornyn has secured support from 15 former Republican members of Congress from Texas. In a statement to The Texas Tribune, he said, “I have been privileged to serve alongside many talented, intelligent, and committed conservatives who have fought with me to represent Texas values and pass conservative reforms in Washington.”

A separate poll commissioned by One Nation, a GOP-aligned group tied to Sen. John Thune, suggests the race is even tighter. According to Notus, Cornyn and Paxton are tied at 39%. 

The third potential candidate is Rep. Wesley Hunt, who hasn’t entered the race officially, but is considering doing it. When Hunt is added to the equation, Cornyn gets 32%, Paxton 31%, and Hunt 17%.

Earlier this year, polls showed Paxton leading Cornyn by as much as 8 points, but recent surveys appear to have helped Cornyn close the gap. Paxton’s camp has dismissed the new polling. “Cornyn’s general electability argument is a tired, pathetic ploy,” Paxton’s adviser Nick Maddux told Notus.

Republican leadership in Washington is lining up behind Cornyn, with concerns that Paxton’s controversial record could give Democrats a better chance in the general election. Still, with months to go before the primary, and Trump yet to endorse, the outcome remains far from certain.