Senator John Cornyn is lagging 16 points behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a recent poll funded by the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Republican leadership. The poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group from April 27 to May 1, shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a wide 16-point margin, 56% to 40%, in a hypothetical head-to-head Republican primary matchup, according to two individuals familiar with the results, as reported by Punchbowl News.
The survey also measured how each of the three Republican contenders would perform in a general election against former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who is reportedly mulling another Senate campaign. In those matchups, Cornyn led Allred by 6 points, Hunt led by 4, and Paxton trailed by 1 point. These results have alarmed GOP strategists, highlighting a core concern: while Paxton may be well-positioned to win a Republican primary, his controversies could make him a weaker candidate in a general election. Paxton, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and a fixture in the MAGA movement, has faced ongoing legal troubles, a dynamic that could weigh heavily in a statewide race.
For Cornyn, who was first elected to the Senate in 2002, the poll marks a particularly damaging moment. Though this is not the first survey to show him vulnerable, the fact that this data comes from allies makes it harder to dismiss. Privately, some Republican operatives have begun to question whether Cornyn has a viable path to the GOP nomination.
Still, Cornyn’s team remains publicly confident. “Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as president and continues to be his close legislative ally,” said senior adviser Matt Mackowiak. “In ten months when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win.”The poll also found that Trump’s job approval rating was slightly positive among Texas voters, up by 2 points, suggesting the survey sampled a more moderate segment of the electorate. This is notable given Trump’s 14-point win in Texas during the 2020 election and stands in stark contrast to his broader national approval, which has recently hit historic lows. Trump’s national approval rating has dropped to just 39%, the lowest level at the 100-day mark of any president in nearly 80 years. Despite this, Trump still edges out Congressional Democrats on trust to handle key issues, highlighting the complex and polarized political landscape that will likely shape the 2024 and 2026 elections.
