As triple-digit temperatures loom over Texas, the state’s power grid operator is delivering unexpected news: this summer may be one of the grid’s most stable in recent memory. With demand forecasted to hit record highs, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) says it’s better prepared than ever, thanks to a massive expansion in solar and battery storage capacity that is reshaping how Texas powers through heat waves.
In just two years, the state’s solar generation has doubled, and battery storage has quadrupled, bringing unprecedented flexibility to a grid long criticized for its vulnerability. These developments, once considered supplemental, are now central pillars of the state’s summer power strategy. According to The Dallas Morning News, for the first time, solar and wind are regularly supplying more than half of Texas’ energy needs during peak moments, reducing strain on natural gas and coal plants and cutting the risk of emergency shortages to near zero.
Last year, the power grid operator predicted that during hours where power use remains high after the sun goes down, the grid would have a 16% chance of entering a power demand emergency. This year, ERCOT predicts a 0.5% chance of having an emergency during the same hours.
“That does put us in a better position to get over those evening ramps as we go into late summer,” said Kristi Hobbs, ERCOT’s vice president of system planning and weatherization.
The grid’s improved outlook also stems from a shift in forecasting methodology. ERCOT has moved away from an outdated projection model that counted speculative projects as guaranteed future demand. This change, mandated by state lawmakers, is giving grid planners a more grounded understanding of supply and demand, and increasing public confidence in the system’s resilience.
Still, optimism is cautious. ERCOT’s meteorologist warns that while the outlook is better, the heat will be relentless and the Gulf’s warm waters continue to pose a high risk for hurricanes. But for now, as Texas braces for a scorching summer, it’s doing so with a power grid strengthened not by fossil fuels, but by a renewable revolution that may finally be hitting its stride.
