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TX Poll: Cruz Holds Close Lead in Senate Race

Beto Cruz RESIZE

Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz holds a four point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in the contest for the U.S. Senate race in November, according to a poll conducted by Reform Austin.
Among the 1,161 people surveyed, 41.8 percent of respondents said they’re “Definitely voting for Ted Cruz,” while 40.7 percent said they’re “Definitely voting for Beto O’Rourke.” Another 7.6 percent of respondents said they’re “probably voting for Ted Cruz,” and 4.6 percent said they’d “probably vote for Beto O’Rourke” and 5.2 percent of responders said they were unsure who they’re voting for. Including “leaners”, Cruz holds a 49.4 to 45.4 lead.
With only six weeks until Election Day, both candidates have consolidated their party bases, while independents remain closely divided. Cruz leads O’Rourke among Republicans 92-5, while O’Rourke leads among Democrats 87-6. Cruz holds a lead among Independents 49-44.  Among unaffiliated voters, 48.7 percent of independents say they’re voting for Cruz and 44.1 percent of independents say they’re voting for O’Rourke.
When it comes to age, Cruz’s biggest supporters are ages 35 to 44, where 60.6 percent of respondents said they’re voting for Cruz. People age 55 and older also favor Cruz, with more than 50 percent of respondents at least 55 years old saying they’re voting for the Republican.
O’Rourke has strong support from younger voters, according to the poll’s results, as 50 percent of respondents ages 18 to 34 saying they plan on voting for him. O’Rourke also has strong support among voters 45 to 54, with 54 percent of respondents in that age group telling Reform Austin they plan on voting for the Democrat.

Demographically, nearly 60 percent of White voters are voting for Cruz, while O’Rourke has support from 65.8 percent of Hispanics and 61.8 percent of African Americans. 27.4 percent of Hispanics and 25.3 percent of African Americans said they’re voting for Cruz.

With three scheduled debates, and millions of dollars still to be spent by the campaigns, party committees, and outside groups, the contest for the US Senate remains competitive.  Reform Austin has also polled the non-federal statewide contests and will release those results on Monday, September 24th.

Female Male White Black Asian Hispanic
Definitely Ted Cruz 40.6% 51.4% 50.1% 20.6% 35.0% 24.7%
Probably Ted Cruz 9.0% 6.5% 9.2% 4.7% 10.0% 2.7%
Probably Beto O’Rourke 3.7% 2.8% 2.3% 8.4% 10.0% 5.5%
Definitely Beto O’Rourke 40.7% 34.2% 34.1% 54.2% 45.0% 60.3%
Someone else/unsure 6.0% 5.1% 4.4% 12.1% 0.0% 6.8%
Share of Sample 51.5% 47.0% 71.1% 9.0% 0.5% 17.0%


18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or older
Definitely Ted Cruz 33.3% 47.4% 35.0% 46.0% 46.2%
Probably Ted Cruz 4.2% 13.2% 6.0% 9.3% 7.8%
Probably Beto O’Rourke 0.0% 5.3% 5.0% 5.6% 2.6%
Definitely Beto O’Rourke 50.0% 26.3% 51.0% 33.0% 37.8%
Someone else/unsure 12.5% 7.9% 3.0% 6.0% 5.7%
Share of Sample 8.9% 17.1% 20.0% 25.0% 29.0%

Methodology: The survey of 1,161 likely Texas voters was conducted September 11-12. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points. 41 percent of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 35 percent as Democrats, and 24 percent as affiliated with another party or as Independents.

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