Numerous polls show that Texas is a competitive state and that it is close to turning blue, but how accurate are these polls? Can you trust them?
A poll released in late August showed U.S. Senator Ted Cruz leading Colin Allred by just two percentage points (47% to 45%) in the Senate race. The poll, conducted by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, found that the difference between Cruz and Allred was within the margin of error, giving Democrats real hope of finally winning a statewide election.
However, most polls give Cruz a lead of more than two percentage points. There are even polls that give Cruz a 10-point lead, so which poll should you trust?
According to Texas Monthly, there are a number of factors to consider when deciding whether or not to trust a poll. The first thing to look at is the sample size. Generally speaking, a sample size between 1,000 and 1,400 respondents is considered a good number for a poll. Some polls that give an exaggerated advantage to Cruz surveyed far less than 1,000 people. For example, an ActiVote poll that gave Cruz a 10-point lead over Allred surveyed only 400 likely voters.
The type of people surveyed also matters. Surveying likely voters is different from surveying registered voters. Likely voters have a higher probability to vote on Election date, and surveys considering likely voters are generally more accurate. However, surveying registered voters is much easier.
In addition, you should keep in mind that all polls have some problems with methodology and data collection, so it is more useful to look at poll averages. For example, according to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight polling average, Cruz leads Allred by an average of nearly seven percentage points.
You should also check the dates on which the survey data was collected. There may be events that affect the results of a poll. According to the Monthly, the UH/TSU poll could have been affected by Joe Biden’s withdrawal and the rapid support Kamala Harris gained. In addition, support for a candidate fluctuates over time, and polls become more accurate as the election date approaches.
It’s true that Cruz has faced tougher re-elections with each new election, but so far most polls agree that the incumbent senator leads Allred, and that’s enough to track a trend. The cryptocurrency-based election market Polymarket gives Cruz an 86% chance of winning the election.
Additionally, Texas Monthly also notes that Allred is trailing the Democrat’s performance in 2018. However, elections are fluid and trends could still change.
