As we look back at Texas’ 2024 election season, early voting data offers critical insights into the changing voter landscape across the state. While Texas continues to be a stronghold for both Republican and Democratic mobilization, the patterns in voter turnout, demographics, and geography signal some potential shifts on the horizon.
Turnout Trends: A Drop in Early Votes from 2020
Texas saw a drop in early and mail-in votes in 2024, down from approximately 9.7 million in 2020 to just over 9 million. This decrease of about 643,000 votes could be partly due to a growing trend among voters waiting until Election Day.
Outer-ring suburban counties experienced growth in early voter turnout, underscoring these areas’ growing importance in the Texas electoral landscape. At the same time, rural voters turned out more than ever before in early voting, according to TargetSmart data that codes voters based on their Census place.
Urbanicity comparison between 2020 and 2024.
This shift suggests that Republican campaigns have successfully engaged rural voters to cast their ballots earlier than in previous election cycles, capturing about 400,000 more rural votes than in 2020. Meanwhile, urban counties—such as Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis—saw sharp declines in early voting, with over 631,000 fewer votes than during the same period in 2020.
Demographic Changes: Older, More Female, and Predominantly White
Analyzing the demographics of early voters reveals further shifts, according to data compiled by RA News using the Texas Secretary of State website. This year’s early electorate skews slightly older, with seniors turning out in larger numbers than younger voters. The electorate is also 9.2% more female than male, a slight increase from 2020. Despite Texas’s growing diversity, the current early voting pool over-indexes as white, at 9.5% above the state’s registered voter demographics.
Gender chart comparison between enrolled voters and 2024 early voters.
If Texas hopes to reach a more balanced voter representation, younger and more diverse voters will need to increase their share. Currently, the share of voters under 35 needs to match or exceed that of voters over 65 to better reflect the state’s population. The participation of Hispanic voters, who make up a large share of Texas’s population, is expected to increase on Election Day.
Age chart comparison between enrolled voters and 2024 early voters.
The Partisan Breakdown and Voting Frequency
Partisan composition of the early vote in 2024 shows only slight changes compared to 2020, with the current model indicating a Republican advantage of +12.3%, up from +11% in 2020, according to TargetSmart data.
Partisanship comparison 2020 to 2024.
Furthermore, the share and volume of first-time voters are down, with the partisanship of these new voters modeling as less Democratic than in 2020.
Voter Frequency comparison 2020 to 2024.
These changes suggest a tightening partisan split, with fewer new or first-time voters joining the ranks compared to the last presidential cycle.
Voter Turnout Disparities in State Senate and House Districts
At the district level, voter turnout disparities paint a challenging picture for some Democratic strongholds. Rural and suburban districts with higher Republican representation continue to have more robust turnout rates than many Democratic districts. For example, turnout in the state senate district SD-25, represented by a Republican, far outpaces turnout in SD-06, a Democratic district, by nearly three to one. Similar trends are visible in the Texas House, where high-enrollment Republican districts like HD-73 saw five times the voter turnout of lower-enrollment Democratic districts like HD-140.
These turnout gaps may be compounded by lower enrollment in districts represented by Democrats, where lower participation could lead to decreased representation in state legislature decisions.
Looking Ahead
The early voting data from Texas’s 2024 election provides an intriguing snapshot of the state’s evolving voter demographics and turnout trends. With suburban and rural areas increasingly active in early voting, the potential for Texas’s outer-ring counties to play a larger role in future elections is clear.
However, the lag in urban turnout may signal a need for further mobilization efforts by Democrats in these traditional strongholds.Moreover, the demographic shifts—especially the older, more female, and predominantly white early electorate—suggest that both parties will need to focus on engaging a broader cross-section of voters if they hope to capture the full diversity of Texas’s population. How these trends play out on Election Day will be telling, as the share of Hispanic, younger, and more diverse voters is expected to increase.
