As Donald Trump eyes a return to office, no country is bracing for the challenges ahead quite like Mexico. With Trump’s constant threats on tariffs, massive deportations, and cross border trade, the stakes are especially high for Mexico.
According to the Associated Press, Trump said he wouldn’t be a dictator, “except for Day 1.” On his first day, he expressed plans to fire thousands of federal employees, pardon Jan. 6 rioters, close the borders and deport thousands of migrants. These two last things would be particularly prejudicial to Mexico.
Trump is repeating promises he made during his first campaign, however, it is still unclear if he will fulfill them now. Back in his first term, Mexico managed to deescalate Trump’s threats by quietly ceding to his immigration demands. However, this second term could have different results, because Mexico has a new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum.
Back in 2018, Mexico had Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador as President, who the AP described as a “charismatic, plain-spoken, folksy leader who seemed to understand Trump, because both had a transactional view of politics: You give me what I want, I’ll give you what you want.”
Trump and Lopez Obrador managed to sustain a civilized if not friendly relationship against all odds, even if Mexico’s president was viewed as a leftist populist.
“We’ve had unbelievable relationships with Mexico. Your president is a friend of mine, he’s a tremendous man,” Trump said in an interview with Mexico’s Nmas. “He’s been very loyal to me, and I’ve been very loyal to him. We just get along.”
However, analysts note that Sheinbaum, despite being in the same party as Lopez Obrador, is more ideological and less pragmatic than the former Mexican president.
“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, and so the problem is that I see her potentially responding to Trumpian policies, whether it’s, you know, organized crime or immigration or tariffs with a much more nationalistic, jingoistic view of the relationship,” Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico’s former ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013, told the AP.
Sheinbaum’s administration could face particular pressure to address U.S. concerns regarding immigration and drug trafficking. Despite Mexico’s recent enforcement efforts, such as significant fentanyl seizures, critics argue that without cooperation, issues around cartels and narcotics could worsen. Additionally, Sheinbaum’s recent moves to centralize government power by diminishing independent regulatory bodies could violate U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) terms, giving Trump grounds to push for trade renegotiations, especially regarding the auto industry and supply chain regulations.
Some officials believe Trump’s threats are just false promises he’ll never carry. For example some argue he’ll not carry on massive deportations because migrants are necessary for the U.S. economy. However, Mexican officials said these views are too optimistic.
“Mexico is looking at it through the lens of economic logic. The logic that the Trump campaign applies on immigration is a logic of national security and cultural identity issues,” Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2018 to 2021, said.
However, Sheinbaum made a fast move, one of the first leaders to call Trump on Thursday to congratulate him. During the call, Trump reminded the Mexican president that they still have issues at the border, but also asked her to send his greetings to Lopez Obrador. The AP reported this “might suggest that Trump believes that López Obrador — the new president’s political mentor — is still in charge, a view shared by some analysts.”
This could help temper the waters between both governments, however, Trump remains a highly unpredictable figure. Ultimately, while Mexico hopes for peaceful trade dynamics, experts argue that optimism should be tempered by a realistic understanding of Trump’s national security-focused policies, which often prioritize economic protectionism. Trump’s plans could directly clash with Mexico’s economic ambitions and political autonomy.
