Nothing defies modern electoral norms like the fact that President-elect Donald Trump swept the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, a region he was widely expected to handily lose.
Love him or hate him, it’s a fact that Trump is a president who shatters precedents. He is the first convicted felon to be elected, the oldest person as well, and the first to come from absolutely no public service history. One other precedent he broke was being the first Republican to win Starr County in a century.
Starr Country is the most Hispanic county in the nation at 97 percent. The rest of the 14 counties that make up the formerly solidly blue area along the border are all majority Hispanic as well. Trump took 12 of them in the recent election. This despite a long history of demonizing Hispanic immigrants as murders, rapists, invaders, and vermin. How did Trump do it?
The region has been trending red for a while. Former President Barack Obama carried Starr by 73 points. By 2020, that lead was down to 5 points. While nationwide Democrats still lead with Hispanic voters, Trump has made vast in-roads.
One reason is economic. The Rio Grande Valley is a poor region with many people struggling. Unhappy people vote for change. That is a political truism as old as democracy itself. Trump’s last term was filled with incompetent trade wars, ineffective tax policies, and a botched handling of the pandemic that helped grind the economy to a halt. His promises for tis term are dominated by a tariff plan that most economists say will add thousands of dollars of expense to the annual household budget. Those facts are insignificant next to a feeling of malaise around not being able to pay the grocery bill now.
There is also the uncomfortable fact that Trump’s virulent and racist anti-immigrant policy is economically good for the Rio Grande Valley, at least for some. Increased law enforcement presence, new facilities, and what can only be described as “amateur border patrol tourists” all pump money into the local economy. Half of the U.S. Border Patrol is Hispanic, and the jobs provide living wages and good benefits.
It doesn’t hurt that the Republican Party has spent a lot of time on the border. Both Trump and Governor Greg Abbott regularly make trips down to the border. Their visits are peppered with bigoted myths about immigrants, but they also tell the people living in these communities that they will help and protect them. Democrats respond by calling these visits stunts and pointing out the racism, which the people there already are aware of.
Lastly, there is an increasing disconnect between Hispanic citizens and immigration policy. Anti-immigrant sentiment among Hispanics is nothing new. As the old saying goes, it’s a rare immigrant who doesn’t think the gates should have been shut the second after they crossed. Hispanic support for anti-immigrant policies has steadily grown, with many seeing newcomers as inferior invaders even when they come from the same country as those polled. Like their white neighbors, some think migrants bring crime, poverty, and disease despite their being no evidence of this.
It’s worth remembering that groups connected to white supremacy have been robustly recruiting Hispanic men. Enrique Tarrio, for instance, was chairman of the Proud Boys despite Afro-Cuban heritage. A Latinos for Trump event in Houston in 2019 featured readings from overt white supremacist literature. When it comes to hating immigrants, racial heritage is not a barrier, and Trump’s brand of fascism is increasingly intersectional.
Trump’s win in the Rio Grande Valley has little to do with policy. It was a combination of Republican hyperfocus on the region, investment in well-paying jobs deterring migrants, and an overwhelming sense that bad times needed a change. This is what Democrats will need to combat to win the valley back.
