U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is losing for the first time to Rep. Colin Allred in the Senate race according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult, shows Allred leading Cruz by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. This is the first poll to show Allred ahead and reflects a significant shift from the previous poll conducted by the same pollster.
The earlier Morning Consult poll, conducted between August 30 and September 8, showed Cruz with a 5-point lead, 47 percent to 42 percent. This new poll was conducted between September 9 and September 18 among 2,716 likely voters.
Allred celebrated the news on social media.
“For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don’t know about y’all but I’m fired up and ready to WIN! We’ve got 47 days, let’s do this Texas,” he wrote on X/Twitter.
Previous polls have consistently shown Cruz leading by anywhere from 2 to 10 percentage points, making it likely that Cruz will still win. However, this Morning Consult poll captures voter sentiment after the presidential debate and could be the start of a trend showing Allred in the lead.
That said, the race could shift dramatically now that both Cruz and Allred have agreed to their first televised debate. The debate will take place three weeks before the Nov. 5 election on Tuesday, Oct. 15, at 7 p.m. at the WFAA studios in Dallas.
Leading into the presidential debate, former President Donald Trump held a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris. After the debate, most polls and even prediction markets showed Harris taking the lead. This Texas debate could similarly provide a key opportunity for both Allred and Cruz to sway the odds in their favor.
Cruz has acknowledged that the race could be more competitive than it appears and has warned Republicans not to take his seat for granted. Some Republicans, however, have already voiced their dissatisfaction with Cruz’s campaign performance.
“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas? I think I know… and I think I know his name… time to get some real professionals in to save Ted Cruz,” Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, wrote on X/Twitter.
