Texas was well represented at the Democratic National Convention this year. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Rep. Veronica Escobar, Bexar Sheriff Javier Salazar, and reproductive choice advocate Olivia Juliana all had speaking roles, and Texas got several shout outs when swing states were brought up. Clearly, the national party sees a future where the Lone Star State flips blue.
How likely is that? According to Evan Choate, the Harris County Democratic Party’s Victory 2024 Campaign Director, it’s not only possible, but essential to future elections.
“Texas being in play would be an absolute game changer nationally,” says Choate. “If Texas were blue, Republicans would need to win all seven of the remaining swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to secure the presidency. A current census projection shows that Texas will likely pick up four seats in 2030 while California will lose some. We’re going to have to start winning in Texas sooner rather than later to remain viable.”
But the math does support the possibility of a flip. In 2020, former president and current convicted felon Donald Trump only won Texas by 5.58 percent, a 3.41 drop from his victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a huge drop from Utah Senator Mitt Romney’s crushing 15.79 percent victory in 2012.
A recent poll conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University shows that Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by only 4.9 percent. Among young voters, Harris is quickly catching up.
“Harris has made considerable headway among voters both in Texas and nationally in the short time since she entered the race last month,” said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. “That’s particularly true among younger voters, with 55 percent of Gen Z voters saying they will support her, compared to just 39 percent who backed Biden, but she also has gained among women and independent voters.”
While the political landscape is more polarized than ever according to most pollsters, big swings do still occur. In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5.09 percent, but he lost it by 0.23 percent in 2020, a nearly five point swing across a single election. So, it does happen.
Even if Harris can’t carry Texas quite yet, 2024 might hold the key to continued Senate control by the Democrats.
“There was just a poll from the University of Houston that showed Ted Cruz 2.8 points behind Trump. If Harris can improve on Biden by 3 points, and Cruz runs behind Trump, then the senate seat is in play,” says Choate.
Harris County is essential to the flipping strategy, which is likely why Texas Republicans have aimed so many voter suppression bills at the state’s largest county since 2020. According to Choate, there are at least 110,000 voters who we they believe are likely Democrats that didn’t vote in 2020 but have voted since then. Beyond that, he thinks there are 400,000 likely registered voters who are likely Democrats but who have not participated in the last two presidential cycles.
That’s just over 500,000 votes. Trump only won Texas by 631,221 votes total in 2020. That’s not enough to flip the state on its own, but it would definitely continue pushing Texas into the swing category.
“We can take a huge chunk out of that just with Harris County,” says Choate.
