A sustained drought could be catastrophic for Texas, a new report shows.
The study was done by the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute and commissioned by Texas 2036, a non-partisan think tank that evaluates Texas infrastructure. It estimates that a years-long drought in the state could cost $160 billion in GDP, nearly a million jobs, and spark a mass exodus from Texas as infrastructure fails.
This is not an unlikely scenario. In the 1950s, Texas experienced a cataclysmic drought that lasted eight years. During that time, rainfall levels across the state remained at 30 to 50 percent less than average. Over 100,000 farms and ranches failed, leaving rural Texas full of ghost towns.
And yet, it’s unlikely to be a freak phenomenon.
“Texas has seen worse and should plan accordingly,” the report reads. “Tree rings suggest droughts similar to the 1950s version (and sometimes worse) afflicted Texas at least once per century, with many other dry periods interspersed within. Given the real and present potential for civilization-altering drought in Texas, this report emphasizes a multi-year and decadal perspective.”
The state is already experiencing drought conditions regularly thanks to increased effects from climate change. The last two years have seen a dearth of rainfall. Payouts from drought insurance for farmers have quadrupled since the early 2000s. Higher temperatures make a deadly drought like the 1950s all but certain in the foreseeable future.
This is exacerbated by Texas becoming an AI and cryptocurrency hub. Server farms in the state use an obscene amount of water to cool their computers. One study estimates that by 2027 the water needed by AI alone will be 1.6 trillion gallons.
Clearly Texas will need to make significant changes to prepare for this eventuality. For one, the state has a badly deteriorating wastewater system. The report estimates that Texas will need to invest $59 billion in finding new water supplies, $74 billion to renovate the water system, and another $21 billion to replace wastewater infrastructure within the next 50 years to mitigate the coming drought.
Texas has done some of this. Currently the state has allocated $45 billion in local and federal funding, including $180 million just announced from the Biden Administration specifically for water infrastructure. However, it leaves a gap of $110 billion left. If not addressed soon, there is a reasonable chance a catastrophic drought will hit the state before improvements can be completed.
“Today’s climate and political-economic structure do not offer the same shock absorbers that Texans of the 1950s could avail themselves of during a drought,” the report reads. “The probability of significant near-term costs beyond the agricultural sector as well as lost longer-term opportunities are risks that demand proactive policy solutions. Costs of inaction will be far higher than before. Our present responsibilities require us to adapt our thought processes and resultant financial and physical actions to a new normal of pre-emptive water supply investments to ensure climate resilience and continued growth opportunities for generations to come. The challenges may be unprecedented but Texas proactivity as reflected by the 60-year history of the water planning process offers ample precedent—we just need to put a bit more money behind it. Invest to grow.”
