Democrats took a historic election beating this week. In wrestling terms, it wasn’t a powerbomb; it was a powerbomb from the top rope through a table. The question is, what now?
Flipping Texas (and our forty Electoral College votes) blue again has been the dream of national Democrats since 2016 when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came within single digits of winning the state. President Joe Biden did even better, losing to president-elect Donald Trump by only 5.58 points.
That trend reversed sharply on Tuesday. Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Trump by 13.9 points, erasing gains all the way back to 2012.
Rep. Colin Allred fared a little better, but still lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 9 points, three times worse than former Rep. Beto O’Rourke did in the same fight in 2018. Things were no brighter down the ballot. Republicans improved their position in the state legislature, flipping a seat that had been in Democratic hands since the Reconstruction Era.
The Republican win has made some things very clear for Democrats going forward.
First, increased diversity in the state does not equal automatic electoral victory, at least under Trumpism. Despite Texas becoming a minority-majority state thanks to growing Latino populations, Republicans have held onto their positions. Latino men in particular swung sharply toward Trump this cycle by 33 points. This matches the increasingly visible Latino male presence in white supremacy groups like the Proud Boys. Democrats simply cannot rely on demographics alone to deliver them.
Second, Texas Democrats lack a leader. This is understandable. As no Democrat has won state-wide office since the 1990s, there is little space for a statewide leader to rule from. Some Representatives such as Gene Wu and the late Sheila Jackson Lee have managed national followings and fervent local support, but they’re positions operate more like fiefdoms than empire builders. O’Rourke is the closest the state has had, and under his momentum Texas made some minor gains, but his star has fallen. The state Democrats are essentially leaderless and scattered.
Last, cautious (or nauseous) optimism is not going to move the needle. Since Trump first entered the political sphere on the back of the Birther movement and buoyed by other conspiracy theories, his dominance of the electoral landscape has been marked by his commitment to biglyness. He has not been judged harshly by the population for his failures to build a wall or destroy the mainstream media. If anything, his wild promises seem to gather more support because of his inability to deliver them in a kind of never-ending daydream that empowers his supporters to keep going.
Democrats instead have stuck to what they could reasonably accomplish. Biden promised, for instance, to forgive student loans, and he did for a millions of Americans, but his measurable accomplishments were drowned out in a sea of despair and depression. That same can be said for his efforts to secure the border, reduce inflation, protect abortion, and more. He did those things, but smally.
For Texas Democrats to take back the ground they have lost from Republicans, they must look to what Republicans have done so successfully: promise a sweeping reconstruction of the system that is failing people. Even if they can’t deliver. Even if it’s impossible. In the age of unreality, orthodox normalcy is a luxury Democrats can no longer afford.
Everything is bigger in Texas. Except Democrats. No matter how many millions of them there are. The path forward should be as audacious as Trump, but in a way that gives the despondent hope. The story of the 2024 election is why 15 million Biden voters stayed home. While misogyny undoubtedly plays a part, the truth is that Trump and his allies offered a better fantasy. Failing to give people that is a choice to keep losing.
